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☆ Welcome to ‘the Tepid Twenties’? The US economy’s strength won’t be enough to boost global growth
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-05 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Invigorating growth is critical: When the economy expands, it improves standards of living, promotes innovation and makes households wealthier. Economic growth in Spain and France was stronger than expected last year. But the US is outperforming mainly for one key reason: Robust productivity growth. Productivity growth came in well below expectations in the first three months of the year, according to Labor Department data released last week. A “course correction” isn’t an even stronger US economy: Economic policymakers around the world need to address a range of key issues.

Persons: ” Kristalina Georgieva, ” Georgieva, ” Stephen Gallagher, Gallagher, “, ”, Hande Atay Alam, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Israel Katz, John Williams, Neel Kashkari, Lisa Cook, Krispy Kreme, John’s, Austan Goolsbee Organizations: Washington CNN, Monetary, IMF, European Central Bank, Labor Department, Societe Generale, CNN, Reuters, Palantir Technologies, Tyson Foods, Marriott Worldwide, New York Fed, Disney, UBS, Duke Energy, Suncor, Bros, Minneapolis, Toyota, Uber, Anheuser, Busch InBev, Airbnb, Fox Corporation, News Corporation, Duolingo, Icahn Enterprises, New York Times Company, AMC Entertainment, Honda, Warner Bros Discovery, Warner Music Group, Hyatt, Hilton, Bank of England, US Labor Department, United Kingdom’s, National Statistics, University of Michigan, . Chicago Fed, China’s National Bureau of Statistics Locations: Europe, China, United States, Spain, France, Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, Israel, Gaza, Olesya, “ Turkey, Lyft, TripAdvisor

☆ Hard Lessons Make for Hard Choices 2 Years Into the War in Ukraine
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-24 | by ( Steven Erlanger | David E. Sanger | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Two years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the United States has the capacity to keep Kyiv supplied with the weapons, technology and intelligence to fend off a takeover by Moscow. But Washington is now perceived around Europe to have lost its will. That is the essence of the conundrum facing Ukraine and the NATO allies on the dismal second anniversary of the war. The sanctions that were supposed to bring Russia’s economy to its knees — “the ruble almost is immediately reduced to rubble,” President Biden declared in Warsaw in March 2022 — have lost their sting. Income from oil exports is greater than it was before the invasion.

Persons: Russia’s, Biden, — Organizations: Kyiv, NATO Locations: Ukraine, United States, Moscow, Washington, Europe, Warsaw, Russian

LONDON (AP) — The International Monetary Fund’s chief economist has advised the U.K. government to avoid further tax cuts amid expectations Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s battered administration will do just that to win over voters in an election year. “In that context, we would advise against further discretionary tax cuts as envisioned and discussed now,” Gourinchas said. Hunt is focusing on longer-term projections, noting that the IMF expects growth to strengthen over the next few years. “It is too early to know whether further reductions in tax will be affordable in the budget, but we continue to believe that smart tax reductions can make a big difference in boosting growth,” he said. Concerns about responsible fiscal policies are especially sensitive for Sunak and Hunt as they came to power after their predecessors were widely criticized for announcing millions of pounds in tax cuts without saying how they would be paid for.

Persons: Rishi Sunak’s, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Jeremy Hunt, Jan, Gourinchas, “, ” Gourinchas, Hunt, ” Organizations: Monetary Fund’s, National Health Service, IMF, Treasury, Conservative Party Locations: Britain

☆ Premarket stocks: The US is pulling ahead in the economic race with China
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-29 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

It appears that a soft landing, where price rises are tamed and the economy manages to avoid recession, is possible. Before the Bell: Is it fair to say that the US is outpacing China in the race for economic supremacy? Just last year people might have said the opposite — that the US was heading towards recession and the Chinese economy was thriving. It is remarkable to see the US economy blazing ahead while the Chinese economy sputters and slips into deflation. What else should investors be aware of when they read about the Chinese economy?

Persons: Bell, Eswar Prasad, Jamie Dimon, he’s, Marianne Lake, Jennifer Piepszak, Piepszak, Troy Rohrbaugh, Rohrbaugh, Dimon, hasn’t, “, Brian Fung, Oregon Democratic Sen, Ron Wyden, Biden Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Cornell University, International Monetary, JPMorgan, JPMorgan Chase, Bloomberg, NSA, National Security Agency, Oregon Democratic, Pentagon, CNN Locations: New York, China, Oregon

How Houthi Attacks Have Upended Global ShippingShipping routes before attacks After attacks EUROPE ASIA Suez Canal Red Sea Gulf of Aden Malacca Strait AFRICA Area of Houthi attacks Continued traffic South Atlantic Ocean Indian Ocean Ships diverted after attacks Cape of Good Hope Shipping routes before attacks After attacks EUROPE ASIA Suez Canal Gulf of Aden Red Sea AFRICA Area of Houthi attacks Continued traffic South Atlantic Ocean Indian Ocean Ships diverted after attacks Cape of Good Hope Shipping routes before attacks After attacks EUROPE Suez Canal Gulf of Aden Red Sea AFRICA Area of Houthi attacks Continued traffic Ships diverted after attacks Cape of Good Hope Note: To show the changing paths of ships that regularly traverse the Red Sea, 3,461 cargo vessels recorded at entrances to the Red Sea in the last three months are shown. Those detours, and the Houthi attacks, have persisted despite airstrikes by the United States and its allies against the Houthis. Houthi attack involving commercial vessels Other Houthi attacks in the Red Sea Three commercial vessels were struck in one day on Dec. 3. Nov. 15, 2023 Dec. 1 Dec. 15 Jan. 1, 2024 Jan. 15 Houthi attack involving commercial vessels Other Houthi attacks in the Red Sea Nov. 15, 2023 Armed Houthi fighters boarded a commerical vessel. The Houthi attacks have delayed China’s annual surge in exports before its factories are idled next month for the Lunar New Year.

Persons: Cape, Jan, JPMorgan Chase, Port Said Organizations: Global Shipping Shipping, Atlantic, Ships, Good Hope Shipping, Shipping, United States Central Command Shipping, Ikea, East, JPMorgan, Maersk, U.S . Energy Information Administration, Rotterdam EUROPE Venice, Good Hope, EUROPE Venice, International Monetary, Trade, Galaxy Leader, U.S . Navy, America Locations: ASIA Suez, Aden Malacca Strait AFRICA, ASIA Suez Canal Gulf, Aden Red, Suez Canal Gulf, Suez, Africa, Yemen, Israel, Gaza, United States, U.S, Asia, Europe, China, Northern Europe, East Coast, Maersk Hong Kong, The Singapore, Singapore, Slovenia, Port Said, Egypt, Port, Russia, Ukraine, India, Rotterdam EUROPE, Rotterdam EUROPE Venice Barcelona, Istanbul ASIA SYRIA LEBANON IRAN ISRAEL IRAQ Strait, Hormuz GAZA Suez, Kuwait, Red, Mumbai Malacca, YEMEN AFRICA, Aden, Good, Good Hope EUROPE ASIA SYRIA LEBANON ISRAEL IRAN IRAQ GAZA Suez, Strait, Hormuz Red, YEMEN, EUROPE, EUROPE Venice Tokyo Barcelona, Istanbul Shanghai ASIA SYRIA LEBANON IRAN ISRAEL IRAQ GAZA, Hormuz Hong, Suez Canal Kuwait, AFRICA Red, Mumbai Bangkok YEMEN Malaca, Istanbul Shanghai SYRIA LEBANON IRAN ISRAEL IRAQ ASIA GAZA, Suez Canal AFRICA Kuwait City Red, Red Sea, Beijing

☆ Russian war economy is overheating on a powder keg
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( Pierre Briancon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

LONDON, Oct 25 (Reuters Breakingviews) - His war on Ukraine may not be unfolding according to plan, but President Vladimir Putin can still claim that the Russian economy is performing, as he says, “better than previously expected”. This kind of understatement is unusual for the Kremlin leader: with a tight labour market and inflation showing no signs of abating, the Russian economy is in fact overheating. And these are conservative numbers, because other types of war spending – such as new construction in the occupied territories – are hidden in other sections of the budget. The Russian currency is down 30% since its January high. Follow @pierrebri on XCONTEXT NEWSThe Russian economy will grow by 2.2% in 2023, the International Monetary Fund said in its October World Economic Outlook.

Persons: Vladimir Putin, “, Putin, Alexandra Prokopenko, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner, Francesco Guerrera, Streisand Neto, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Kremlin, International Monetary, Bank of Russia, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Bank of, Danone, Carlsberg, International Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Russian, Russia, –, Moscow, Europe, Lithuania, microchips, Kazakhstan, Bank of Russia, United States, China, U.S, Beijing

☆ Opinion | The Secret of America’s Economic Success
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-23 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

In the United States, 20 million jobs suddenly disappeared. Indeed, as we approach Covid’s four-year mark, many of the world’s economies remain well short of full recovery. But not the United States. Not only have we had the strongest recovery in the advanced world, but the International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook also points out that American growth since 2019 has actually exceeded pre-Covid projections. But let’s take a moment to celebrate this good economic news — and try to figure out what went right with the U.S. economy.

Persons: — Organizations: Monetary Locations: United States, U.S

☆ IMF urges BOJ to move away from yield control, prepare for future tightening
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Leika Kihara | Andrea Shalal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

TOKYO/WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The Bank of Japan should start preparing for future monetary tightening by moving away from its yield control policy, the International Monetary Fund’s chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said on Tuesday. FILE PHOTO: A Japanese flag flutters on the Bank of Japan building in Tokyo, Japan, March 15, 2016. They have also said the BOJ was mindful of the cost of YCC such as market distortions caused by its heavy bond buying. Widening the allowance band around its 10-year yield target, a step it took last December, could be among options to mitigate the side-effects of YCC, analysts say. Growth in the world’s third-largest economy is expected to slow to 1.0% in 2024 as the effect of past stimulus measures dissipate, the IMF said.

Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Toru Hanai, ” Gourinchas, Gourinchas, Kazuo Ueda Organizations: Bank of Japan, Monetary Fund’s, REUTERS, Reuters Locations: TOKYO, WASHINGTON, Tokyo, Japan

☆ Pakistan: IMF approves $3 billion bailout for cash-starved country
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Islamabad Reuters —The International Monetary Fund’s board approved a $3 billion bailout program for Pakistan which will immediately disburse about $1.2 billion to help stabilize the South Asian ailing economy, the lender said on Wednesday. Pakistan and the fund reached a staff level agreement last month, securing a short-term pact, which got more than expected funding for the country of 230 million people. The country has faced an acute balance of payments crisis with only enough central bank reserves to cover barely a month of controlled imports. Longtime allies Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates have deposited $3 billion in Pakistan’s central bank in the last two days. Sharif said China had rolled over $5 billion in loans in the last three months to save his country from default.

Persons: “, Shehbaz Sharif, ”, Sharif, Fitch Organizations: Islamabad Reuters, Monetary, IMF, “, Longtime, United, CCC Locations: Islamabad, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, China

☆ Opinion | The Impossible Math of the Debt Deal’s Detractors
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

Even the cuts in the debt ceiling deal would be a mild retardant for economic growth. in 2021, compared with 115 percent for the United States, and Japan seems to be doing OK. (Those numbers are somewhat exaggerated because they include debt held by other parts of the government, not just debt held by the public.) At that point, an uncomfortably large portion of federal spending has to be devoted to paying interest on the debt. That brings up the second thing that’s wrong with the right wing’s condemnation of the debt ceiling deal. The drama around the debt ceiling deal, which is far from over, is intense because negotiators are trying to achieve something that is impossible.

☆ A flawed but useful economic model for a bleak age
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Edward Chancellor | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Modern Monetary Theory, which endorses unlimited government spending, was all the rage during the years of ultra-low interest rates. John Cochrane’s fiscal theory fits the bill. Cochrane, a senior fellow of the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, recently published “The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level”. Not only are high interest rates incapable of arresting inflation, fiscal theory suggests they actually make the problem worse. Nor do bondholders operate with rational expectations, as fiscal theory suggests.

☆ Rich countries and India should cut a climate pact
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Emissions from the world’s most populous country are only 7% of greenhouse gases but are growing fast while those produced by rich countries have largely peaked. To do so, it will need policies that incentivise green investment, including accelerating its plans for carbon pricing. Rich countries can also help, even at a time when their budgets are stretched. India could then be much more ambitious in its transition plan and the G7 and other rich countries could mobilise funds, focussing on key bottlenecks. But if the central government comes up with a solution, rich countries could help fund it.

☆ High inflation isn’t going away
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The report, released on Tuesday, indicates that global inflation has peaked but policymakers will still have to fight harder to vanquish it. Worldwide growth in consumer prices will fall from an annual average of 8.8% in 2022 to 6.6% in 2023 and 4.3% next year, the IMF reckons. A drop in energy costs and weaker demand – hammered by rising interest rates - will drive much of that decline. Even in advanced economies, where inflation is set to fall from 7.3% in 2022 to 4.6% this year, the IMF reckons prices will still rise by 2.6% in 2024. That suggests interest rates will stay high even after the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank stop hiking.

☆ Euro zone can afford to keep fiscal taps running
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

If they don’t overdo it, governments can also ease the blow of the European Central Bank’s efforts to tame inflation. But euro zone leaders like Germany’s Olaf Scholz, France’s Emmanuel Macron and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni face pressure from economic policymakers to curb the handouts. The Commission estimates that the euro zone aggregate deficit will be 3.7% of GDP in 2023. As the ECB keeps a lid on growth to slay inflation, European governments can keep the fiscal taps open. Follow @guerreraf72 on TwitterloadingCONTEXT NEWSThe European Central Bank is putting pressure on euro zone governments to rein in fiscal spending.

☆ Central banks are fighting a war on inflation. They're not done yet
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

London CNN —One of the main jobs of central banks is to keep prices under control, allowing households and businesses to plan for the future with some certainty on what things will cost. Tolga Akmen/EPA-EFE/ShutterstockPolicymakers face difficult questions about exactly when to pause interest rate hikes. The European Central Bank’s main rate is 2%, while the Bank of England’s is 3.5%. Still, investors are becoming increasingly confident that major central banks will change course soon. “Central banks are relatively close to the end,” Sels said.

☆ One third of world economy expected to be in recession in 2023, says IMF chief
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-02 | by ( Diksha Madhok | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New Delhi CNN —This year is going to be tougher on the global economy than the one we have left behind, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) chief Kristalina Georgieva has warned. “Half of the European Union will be in recession,” Georgieva added. The IMF currently projects global growth to be at 2.7% this year, slowing from 3.2% in 2022. “For the first time in 40 years China’s growth in 2022 is likely to be at or below global growth,” Georgieva said. “Before Covid, China would deliver 34, 35, 40% of global growth.

☆ Energy exporting countries should be 'less dependent' on the oil cycle, says IMF
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEnergy exporting countries should be 'less dependent' on the oil cycle, says IMFJihad Azour, the International Monetary Fund’s Middle East and Central Asia director, told CNBC that energy exporting countries should be “less dependent” on the oil cycle.

☆ IMF chief economist says central banks' inflation fight to last into 2024
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-11 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

FILE PHOTO: A man looks at a shop at the Ameyoko shopping district in Tokyo, Japan, May 20, 2022. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/FilesWASHINGTON (Reuters) - Central banks’ fight against inflation may take another two years to play out, increasing unemployment and lowering living standards for many in the world, the International Monetary Fund’s chief economist said on Tuesday. In an interview with Reuters, IMF economic counselor Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said that broad “core” inflation pressures beyond energy and food prices will take time to bring down to central bank targets of about 2%. “Our projection is that this will start coming down, but we will not be back to central bank targets in 2023,” Gourinchas said of inflation. “We’ll be closer to that in 2024.”

CNN —There will be “people on the street” globally unless steps are taken to protect the most vulnerable from inflation, International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) chief Kristalina Georgieva warned on Wednesday. And if you don’t take action to support the most vulnerable, there would be consequences: people on the street,” IMF’s Managing Director Georgieva told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour. So we think of poor people first when we advocate for attacking inflation forcefully,” Georgieva said. Because of a shock upon shock upon shock. They have been locked in their houses for months, and months and months.

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